A leading infectious disease expert has warned that the spread of a new strain of mpox to the UK is “inevitable” following the detection of the first case in Europe. This comes as global health authorities raise alert levels and declare a public health emergency.
Key Developments
- The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has raised its risk alert level for mpox.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a global public health emergency.
- Sweden confirmed Europe’s first case of the new mpox strain (clade 1b) on Thursday.
- Pakistan has reported at least one case of mpox, strain yet to be determined.
Expert Opinion
Professor Chloe Orkin from Queen Mary University, London, stated to Sky News: “Yes, it is inevitable that this strain of mpox that started off in 2024 from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and that has now spread to at least nine neighbouring countries will come to the UK because of international travel.”
However, she added that this doesn’t necessarily mean it would spread widely within the UK.
Current Situation
- The new strain, known as clade 1b, emerged in the DRC last year.
- In 2024, there have been over 15,600 cases of mpox and 537 deaths globally, exceeding last year’s total.
- 13 African Union Member States have reported cases in 2024.
- No cases of the new strain have been detected in the UK so far.
Risk Assessment
- The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) currently considers the risk to the UK population as low.
- The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control now rates the risk as moderate for the EU and European Economic Area.
- Professor Orkin warns that this strain is ten times more dangerous in terms of deaths than the 2022/23 strain.
UK Preparedness
- The UK has vaccine supplies available for those at risk.
- Professor Orkin states that the UK has better vaccine availability now compared to the 2022/23 outbreak.
- The UK has the capability for diagnosis, contact tracing, and vaccination for exposed individuals.
Global Context
Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director general, emphasized the need for a coordinated international response to stop these outbreaks and save lives.
While the situation is concerning, experts stress that good public health vigilance should help prevent widespread transmission if cases are imported into the UK.
